We hate to see it, but Merck stocks are RED, RED, RED! It’s been on a downward spiral for the past year. At first, it didn’t ring any alarms for me, but when I woke up this morning and saw that it was down 20% compared to last year, I had to investigate: What’s going on with Merck?
The Cash Cow Is Dying
Every pharma company has a blockbuster drug that brings in most of the revenue and keeps the lights on. In Merck’s case, that would be Keytruda, its pride and joy. Keytruda is an immune-based anticancer therapy and the envy of the pharma world. The drug is approved for 40 indications—yes, you heard that right: forty.
It’s no surprise that Keytruda accounts for almost 42% of Merck’s annual revenue, pulling in a whopping $27 billion in 202 alone, making it the world’s best-selling drug. But, as with all good things, the party must come to an end. Keytruda, the cash cow, the milking cow, is dying.
Why? Because Keytruda’s patent is set to expire in 2028.
Now, that wouldn’t be such a big deal if Merck had another blockbuster drug ready to take its place. But here’s the problem: Merck doesn’t have one. And to make matters worse, Merck’s second best-selling product, the Gardasil vaccine, is also facing a patent cliff in 2028.
We are worried Rob Davis (Merck’s CEO) !!!!!!
Davis recently spoke at the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference, and in summary, he essentially said, figuratively, “Don’t worry. Our pipeline is solid, our pipeline is great, and we have good drugs coming.” Then, more literally, he added: “There’s no reason we shouldn’t aspire to grow through the LOE, not just beyond the LOE.” Honestly, I have no idea what the heck that means. So, I thought, “Alright, let me go check out Merck’s pipeline myself.”
And let me tell you, I wish I hadn’t. Looking at the drugs currently under review and in Phase 3 trials, I don’t see a Keytruda successor anywhere in sight. Not only that but when I looked into whether Merck is developing any first-in-class drugs, I noticed for almost every drug Merck is working on, another big pharma company has a similar drug in development—and in some cases, the competitor’s drug has better clinical readouts/properties.
Now, I might be wrong (and I hope I am). If you’re curious, check out Merck’s pipeline [link here] and let me know what you think. Do you see any blockbusters or winners in their future?
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (JFK Jr.) is beefing with Merck, and it’s getting heated.
Currently, Merck is battling a lawsuit in court claiming that the company misled the public about the safety of its vaccine Gardasil. Now, this isn’t just any normal lawsuit. This is a class action lawsuit filed a Gardasil HPV product liability lawsuit in federal courts. Normally, under U.S. law, such cases must first be filed in the special Vaccine Court run by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). The National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (VICP)—often called Vaccine Court—is a no-fault federal program that provides compensation to individuals injured by vaccines. It offers an alternative to traditional civil lawsuits. Vaccine court aims to address claims quickly while capping compensation and limiting vaccine makers’ liability.
But this case? It’s not in Vaccine Court
This lawsuit was filed in regular court, which means Merck has to fight it out without the protections offered by Vaccine Court. There are no caps on compensation and no limits on liability. The stakes are much higher for Merck.
So, how does JFK Jr. fit into all of this? Reports say he’s not just involved—he’s the mastermind [Linke Here] . He’s credited with leading the charge and coming up with this new legal strategy to sue Merck in regular court, bypassing Vaccine Court entirely. And it doesn’t end there. Even if Merck somehow manages to dismiss the trial (which they’ve already tried several times and failed) and shift the case to Vaccine Court, they might still end up face-to-face with JFK Jr.. Because the Vaccine Court is under the jurisdiction of HHS, and President Donald Trump nominated JFK Jr. to lead HHS.
The Avengers
Now, I’ll end with this: there might actually be something good happening at Merck……. Their human capital. In my field—clinical pharmacology—I’ve noticed that some truly outstanding scientists are migrating to Merck. And when I say outstanding, I mean the top of the top—the kind of scientists who write the guidelines and whose work has literally shaped the field. It’s like Merck is assembling their own version of The Avengers to tackle the challenges ahead.
So, What Do You Think?
Now that I’ve made my case, I want to hear from you. I have a few Merck stocks—should I sell?
Is there still a chance for a turnaround with their A-team of scientists and (hopefully) some breakthrough innovations on the horizon?
Let me know your thoughts!
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